Since 2014, and even more so since 2022, Europeans have profoundly revised their approach to defence. The prospect of a major conflict on the continent, long considered unlikely, is now part of political and military discourse. Several European leaders openly mention the possibility of a war with Russia in the coming years. While scenarios differ, a consensus is emerging: Moscow could regain a significant offensive capability within five years.
This threat comes against a backdrop of deteriorating transatlantic relations. The US National Security Strategy (NSS – 2025), followed by the National Defense Strategy (NDS – 2026), insist that Europe must now shoulder a much larger share of the security burden, and they heighten the ambiguity about Washington’s attitude in the event of a conflict in Europe. This ambiguity was revived by the way European Allies were treated during the Greenland crisis, which raises questions about the real hierarchy of American priorities and about the future of NATO.
Europeans, who outsourced their security for decades, must therefore prepare to take on more responsibility, which means acquiring the capabilities they lack.
This extract was translated from French by Claude (AI). In case of any discrepancy, the French version prevails.
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